From Credit Suisse:
Futures bubble argument looks flawed
Our team has been positive but cautious since March, but is now trending increasingly towards the latter view that there is real demand driving the steel prices, and steel is leading iron ore. The key argument for the speculative view is that a bubble has inflated in futures markets and driven up physical prices. But as steel futures are lagging spot prices (Figure 1), that contention seems flawed. It looks more like spot prices are surging ahead and that suggests buyers of physical steel are finding a tight market.