May data preview: recovery faded: Probably not too surprising to those familiar with ‘mini-cycle with Chinese style’, which is the title of a report we wrote two years ago, the recovery since March has faded and growth has hit a plateau. That said, the near-term downside is also limited given the support from property and infrastructure demand (May data preview). For May, we expect largely flattish PMI and industrial production growth, which is in line with 6.7% GDP growth in 2Q16 (1Q16: 6.7%) and so-called “L-shaped” growth pattern. That said, with eased deflation pressure, nominal GDP growth in 2Q16 will most likely continue to accelerate. In 1Q16, it jumped to 7.2% yoy from 6.0% in 4Q15.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
