China top tier house prices begin to fall

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Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

The real estate slowdown in the first-tier has reached Shanghai. Luxury apartment prices have stabilized and now there’s news of a home being slashed from 17.5 million to 15 million, or 14 percent.

In Beijing, May existing home sales are at the lows of 2016, and prices are starting to come down 3 percent to 5 percent according to brokers. The same price trend is seen in Shanghai. Shanghai brokers say about 20 percent of homeowners are willing to cut prices. Traffic is still strong on the weekends, but a larger share of customers are making inquiries, not buying.

The rate of increase in existing home prices is expected to decline moving forward.

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iFeng: 一线楼市现反转 上海市有房价格直跌达250万

Meanwhile, tier two runs wild, where there have been 118 land kings in first- and second-tier cities this year, but the highest total previously was 60 in all of 2013.

This is just a few months, a number of second-tier urban land market king manufactured.

2016 to date, just over five moonlight scene, along with the brand enterprises have to return a second-tier cities, Shanghai, Suzhou and other cities along the land market is also heating up, frequent the king. Where Nanjing is hitting “three times a day to the king,” the mad scene, combined with the remaining four plots, only one day, Nanjing in the land market will attract 24.856 billion yuan.

The rapid growth of land prices, housing prices allow some address him “can not afford.” CAC Group, chairman of Huangqi Sen said that in many places the land in front of more than two years has doubled, “We are very cautious, only to get a suitable plot in the appropriate city.”

“New Suzhou developers especially developers, just look at stocks, crazy enter, shoot sky-high price to the king. Validate the ‘Rate is still normal, but a large risk premium’.” Suzhou, a local developer of anonymity Die Zeit, he told reporters.

By the “king” frequent drive, the overall average price and the total amount of land to sell the domestic market increase as a result. January to March 2016, 300 cities nationwide land transfer a total of 4 408 billion yuan, an increase of 4%. 2016 first quarter, the turnover of the floor price of 1,450 yuan / square meter, an increase of 18%. Where residential land transactions floor price of 2424 yuan / square meter, an increase of 36%.

CRIC Real Estate Research Center statistics show that as of May 20, including the north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen and Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei and other hot spots, including second-tier cities, a total of 22 major cities, this year has generated the total price, the unit price or premium rate number of the king of 118, and in a “prime Year” in 2013, but the year also sold 60 to the king.

2016 year-end will be the king of the most historically year, when the “king tide” avalanche, many housing prices has become a tightrope walker, walking on thin ice in the buy buy buy. It is worth noting, issued “on the release <2016 National Land Use Plan” notice “under the Ministry of Land and recently, clear requirements for volume and intensity of land for construction of dual control. Industry insiders believe that this is a signal the government to tighten land supply, land prices may have some impact future. In this backdrop, what housing prices to buy, how to buy, the second half will be a major part of the land market.

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Meanwhile nobody cares about lower tiers:

Nobody cares about three or four lines of urban land, dragged down total national land area and the number of cases decreased. According to the China Index Research Institute show that compared to the first quarter of 2015, launched a total of 300 cities nationwide land 5784, down 14%; the introduction of the land area of ​​208.4 million square meters, down 9%.

iFeng: 今年一二线城市已出118地王 上个“地王年”全年60个

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.