From Goldman:
The private capex update for 4Q2015 showed that investment was a touch more resilient than expected at the end of the year – with total capex rising by +0.8%qoq against the consensus expectation for a -3%qoq fall. Nevertheless, the investment intentions data confirmed that the Australian economy was on track to continue a deep retrenchment in capex in FY16, with the fifth estimate of capex for FY16 implying a fall of -19.0% (after adjusting for long-run realisation ratios), which was on par with the decline implied by the fourth estimate (-17.0%). More worringly, the first estimate for capex spending for FY17 was surprisingly disappointing, with the raw reading of $82.6bn implying a -12.5% decline after adjusting for the long-run realisation ratios.
Looking ahead to the 1Q16 update, we expect weak capex trends to continue. In terms of actual capex we expect a -6.0%qoq fall in the quarter (with machinery & equipment spending also falling by around this amount), taking the annual capex growth to -17.0%yoy.