UBS has some estimates on how soft Pilbara iron ore shipments were in January:
We estimate BHP Billiton’s share for the month at 19.2Mt or 56.8%. This represents a soft month for BHP Billiton, down 7% sequentially, and an annualised run rate of just 225Mtpa. FY 16 production guidance remains 270Mt. We estimate FMG’s share of January exports from Port Hedland at 12.9Mt, or 38.2%, down 13.4% sequentially. This is also a soft month for FMG and implies an annualised rate of 152Mtpa.
So, on an annualised basis we were down 58mt in Port Hedland. If we extrapolate that 13.3% fall to RIO’s ports then we get a total annualised miss above 100mt. Brazil was hit hard on seasonality. Yep, that’ll give you your price spike.