The gargantuan capital flight from EMs

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Some nice charts here courtesy of Zero Hedge on the magnitude of the capital flight underway in emerging markets, First Deutsche:

EMOutflows

This has of course generated huge pressures on EM currencies but they have been saved from a rout by the great war chest of US dollar assets that has been flogged:

ReservesGS
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The danger is of course that the US-dollar emerging market debt binge on the past few years, in the private sector not public, will become unserviceable:

oct61

Thus tipping the world into some kind of emerging market and commodities debt reckoning. No GFC certainly but enough to end the global business cycle and an event with Australia at its core.

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We are still only at the beginning of this process and as the Fed hikes and China keeps cutting you can expect it to accelerate no matter whether it culminates in actual crisis or not.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.