Consumer confidence retraces again

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By Leith van Onselen

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research consumer confidence index retraced by 1.4points in the week ended 22 November after hitting a 22 month high two week’s back (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_10510 Nov. 24 10.33

The slight fall in the index was driven by reduced confidence towards future finances, which fell 4.7% and is down 0.2% on a year ago.

ANZ co-head of Australian economics, Cherelle Murphy, blamed the fall in confidence on the recent terrorist attacks in France:

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“It is possible that the recent terrorist events are weighing on confidence. A recent Newspoll showed that around three quarters of Australians believe a terrorist attack is at least ‘likely’ in Australia.”

More likely it is a retracement back to reality after the sugar hit from Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister.

Regardless, the below chart plotting the most recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index against the latest ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence index confirms this view:

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ScreenHunter_10511 Nov. 24 10.33

Both are at reasonable levels.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.