Some folks are in for a shock, JPM included, where Stephen Walters has cut his 2016 growth outlook to 2.6% from 2.9% and pushed out his forecast for rate hikes from H2 2016 to H1 2017:
I am particularly enamored of the mainstream economic fraternity’s assumption that business investment is only going to fall a little next year. Up to date ABS data is indicating minus 21%-25% for 15/16. Apparently H2 2016 is going to boom on a looming rush of confidence as:
- house prices begin to fall;
- the residential construction boom declines;
- car manufactures shutter, and
- China and EMs continue to spike volatility.
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