JPM pushes out rate hikes as Elvis sighted

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Some folks are in for a shock, JPM included, where Stephen Walters has cut his 2016 growth outlook to 2.6% from 2.9% and pushed out his forecast for rate hikes from H2 2016 to H1 2017:

I am particularly enamored of the mainstream economic fraternity’s assumption that business investment is only going to fall a little next year. Up to date ABS data is indicating minus 21%-25% for 15/16. Apparently H2 2016 is going to boom on a looming rush of confidence as:

  • house prices begin to fall;
  • the residential construction boom declines;
  • car manufactures shutter, and
  • China and EMs continue to spike volatility.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.