West China property has “quietly collapsed”

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Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

In Tongzhou District of Beijing, prices are hard to restrain, but the Western property market has quietly collapsed. This issue, “China Business” choose Chengdu and Xi’an to focus attention, in order to reveal the property market crisis of the western region; at the same time, we have to Xi’an subway along the commercial real estate, for example, explain the commercial real estate predicament.

In Chengdu, buildings are unfinished:

“Developers stamp commitments June 30 return to work, but a month later still no movement.” Is located in Chengdu Tianfu Second Street and Yizhou large crossing Hua Jia Yue Hui Hui · words in the owners of Mr. Zhang quite helpless. It is understood that the development of this project in Chengdu Ka Wah Mei Industrial’s three with “Hua Hui” for the case of real estate are in fact the name of a suspended state.

There’s more than 30 unfinished projects currently, and it took the government 7 years to clean up 66 abandoned projects in the early 2000s:

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According to local research firm statistics, the current real estate market in Chengdu contain Wulong Island House, Madison Square etc., suspension, semi-suspension of commercial or residential real estate has more than 30 projects. Compared with the previous real estate development boom started in 2004, was included in the clean-up of the Chengdu Municipal Government to a list of 66 projects downtime, he spent seven years to gradually “resurrection.”

Unfortunately, the market is in much worse shape than 10 years ago:

“Chengdu real estate market has entered a turning point.” A Hong Kong real estate consultancy firm, analysts said funds chain taut and even rupture, and severe lack of market consumption has become overwhelming surplus real estate market three “big mountain” and “difficult to reproduce 2004 schedule with favorable market after flipping a good time. “

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HK developers are selling out:

July 15, Evergrande (03333.HK) announced that from Chinese Estates (00127.HK) asset purchase premises in Chengdu, China set · West Jincheng, China Metropolis is set to *, Chinese Estates Plaza, residential and commercial building projects.

But after CC Land (01224.HK) on June 2 to Chongqing’s most high-profile assets to 5.5 billion yuan package to bigger, July 24, CC Land again Chengdu sale of assets, took over the party is just through the acquisition of Greentown, Kaisa failure of financial record, the subject of CC Land Holdings 51% of Chengdu Guojia estate, amounted to 2.756 billion yuan.

The acquisition, Sun Hongbin won seven development projects. SUNAC announcement further shows that seven total salable building area of ​​2.41 million square meters, of which 1.39 million square meters of unsold.

Withdrawing from Chengdu, the seller of CC set forth in the announcement – tier cities this year, China’s non-market general weakness, huge inventory, resulting in very uncertain prospects, risk accumulation, the company has brought challenges.

In addition, exit Chengdu Chinese Estates is bearish prospects for the future, its announcement, said: “In recent years a number of large commercial properties in Chengdu completed and put into the market, resulting in leased area and hotel room supply surplus revenue for all rental properties. and hotel operating income has decreased significantly, and then lead to low returns expected to hold commercial property.”

At work are the same problems seen all over China as developers run out of money:

“In the property market, the downstream process, the developers encountered weak financing channels and marketing double repression, so that funding problems strand breaks.” A developer official told the author, Chengdu commercial real estate development in recent years, the market supply exceeds demand due to heat Project to survive environmental degradation become the project unfinished “external”; moreover real estate development and financial strength and operational capacity is weakened late financing “internal”, once the deviation occurs, resulting in funding strand breaks leading to the project schedule.

Recalling the 2001 Chengdu market “unfinished tide”, was included in the government to clean up the scope of 66 real estate concentrated in commercial real estate, office buildings and hotels, mostly because of debt default suspension, up to 10 years. At that time, the Chengdu Municipal Government in order to solve the problem failed to materialize, the Disposal stoppage projects by the various departments of Chengdu Construction Committee, the Planning Bureau, Land Bureau, the Housing Authority and the hospital, prosecutors, police and other coalition leading group office, after nearly only seven years of effort, “Resurrection.”

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.