Private capex outlook screams recession warning

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The ABS has release the all important Private Capex survey for the March which contains the second estimate for the 2015/16 year ahead. The news is…well…disastrous:

Estimate 2 for total capital expenditure for 2015-16 is $104,033m. This is 24.6% lower than Estimate 2 for 2014-15. The main contributor to this decrease is Mining (-34.9%). Estimate 2 is 1.4% higher than Estimate 1 for 2015-16. The main contributor to this increase is Other Selected Industries (+6.6%).

The total is a near complete wipe out projecting a fall in business investment that could be anywhere from 2-4% of GDP:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.