Citi destroys long run iron ore forecasts

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More today from Ivan Szpakowski of Citi, my new favourite analyst at Bloomie:

“The next decade is shaping up to be a complete reversal of the past decade…Perhaps the greatest structural challenge facing the iron ore market is the rolling over of Chinese iron ore demand, driven by declining domestic steel demand and rising scrap availability…As a result, despite growth from other emerging markets, we forecast a decline in global iron ore demand over the 2020s…

Yep. The bank crushed its long term price from $81 to $55. And sees the 2016-18 period at $40:

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A total match with MB.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.