Why the commodoties super cycle is entering a super bust

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Mirabile dictu! Someone who understands commodities. From ANZ’s Richard Yetsenga via FTAlphaville:

For more than six months now there has been a tug of war between an economic approach which implies that a fall in oil prices is positive for global growth because it is a positive income shock, and financial markets, which have been rallying bonds hard and seemingly treating the fall in commodities as a deflationary shock. We haven’t necessarily taken sides in this debate, but from a strategy perspective we have certainly argued that this oil price fall should not be assumed to result in higher growth expectations or higher bond yields.

The reality is that so far it hasn’t. Bloomberg tracks global growth expectations and the measure for 2015 has fallen from a peak of 3.4% in Q2-2013, to a current reading of 2.8%. While the fall has not been particularly sharp, it is nevertheless unmistakable.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.