From Deloitte:
The sixteenth edition of the AFGC CHEP Retail Index indicates that a slowdown will be seen in year-on-year growth in retail sales.
The Index was 4.5 per cent higher in December 2014 compared to December 2013, a slightly higher rate of growth from 4.2 per cent in September 2014. On a quarterly basis, the Index was 4.4 per cent higher in the December quarter 2014 compared to the December quarter 2013.
Growth in the Index is expected to slow over the first few months of 2015, to 2.5 per cent over the 12 months to February 2015 and 2.4 per cent over the 12 months to the March quarter 2015.
ABS Retail Trade trend data showed evidence of a slowing in the rate of growth in the second half of 2014. The latest data shows that year-on-year growth in nominal retail trade was 4.5 per centover the year to November 2014.
If it pans out, that’s a better Christmas than I feared. Full report.