RIO on track for iron ore flood

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RIO’s 3rd quarter production is out and around estimates:

Rio Tinto chief executive Sam Walsh said “We have delivered another strong quarter with record iron ore production and a solid performance in copper and aluminium. We have seen our first full quarter from the 290 Mt/a iron ore expansion in the Pilbara, with the additional tonnes going into our premium Pilbara Blend products. Our strategy of focussing on long-life, low-cost assets means we will continue to generate strong cash flows despite a lower price environment, resulting in materially increased and consistent cash returns to shareholders.”
Highlights (Rio Tinto share unless stated otherwise)

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• Record quarterly and year to date iron ore shipments, production and rail volumes. Sales from the Pilbara continued to exceed production in the quarter, as the stocks that were built in anticipation of delivery of the infrastructure expansion were drawn down.
• Infrastructure for the 360 million tonnes per annum (Mt/a) expansion is 75 per cent complete, with all rail, marine and wharf works in place. The 360 Mt/a project is poised to generate significant value for shareholders.
• Rio Tinto is increasing its copper guidance for the year on the back of mined copper production being 15 per cent higher than in the first nine months of 2013, driven by improved recoveries at the Kennecott concentrator and the sustained ramp up at Oyu Tolgoi.
• Global bauxite production in the third quarter was seven per cent higher than in the second quarter, as the Gove bauxite mine continued its ramp up following curtailment of the Gove refinery in May.
• Aluminium production in the third quarter was broadly in line with last year. Production from the new AP60 plant and productivity gains across the smelter portfolio offset the loss of production from Shawinigan, which closed in November 2013, and the partial shutdown at Kitimat as the plant continues to prepare for full commissioning of the modernised smelter in the first half of 2015.
• Production of hard coking coal in the first nine months of 2014 was in line with 2013. Production of thermal and semi-soft coal was down only three per cent, despite the loss of production from the Clermont mine which was sold in the second quarter of this year, due to production of thermal coal from Hail Creek and significant productivity gains achieved across other coal mines in the business.
• Titanium dioxide production was down 11 per cent in the first nine months of the year as the business continues to match production volumes to underlying demand.
• Exploration and evaluation expenditure was $566 million in the first nine months of 2014, sustaining the savings achieved in 2013 whilst continuing to progress the highest priority projects.

As well:

Infrastructure for the 360 Mt/a expansion is 75 per cent complete, with all rail, marine and wharf works now in place. The infrastructure expansion is expected to be complete by the end of the first half 2015. In November 2013, Rio Tinto set out its breakthrough pathway to optimise the growth of mine capacity towards 360 Mt/a, which freed up more than $3 billion of capital previously earmarked for the expansion. The 360 Mt/a project is poised to generate significant value for shareholders and production from the Pilbara is expected to be 330 million tonnes (100 per cent basis) in 2015.

In short, adding 40 million tonnes of production over the next year. Not very encouraging for the bear market rally in iron ore miners. Full report here.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.