Expected capex still sees big cliff

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the much admired Private Capex report today and it looks like Glenn Stevens is going to have to do a little more whinging. Estimate 7 for last year is weak and shows capex fell year on year. More importantly, after last quarter’s strong rebound, expected capex is easing back:

Estimate 7 for total capital expenditure for 2013-14 is $157,869 million. This is 1.7% lower (-$2,661m) than Estimate 7 for 2012-13. Estimate 7 for equipment, plant and machinery decreased by 8.9% (-$4,997m) while Estimate 7 for buildings and structures increased by 2.2% (+$2,336m). Estimate 7 is 3.2% lower (-$5,249m) than Estimate 6 for 2013-14. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-$5,025m).

Estimate 3 for total capital expenditure for 2014-15 is $145,158 million. This is 10.2% lower (-$16,463m) than Estimate 3 for 2013-14. The main contributor to this decrease was Mining (-$21,974m). Estimate 3 is 5.1% higher (+$7,098m) than Estimate 2 for 2014-15. The main contributor to this increase was Other Selected Industries (+$5,098m).

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.