Tony still tracking the witch into the ditch

Advertisement

From Roy Morgan today:

unnamed

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (56.5%, down 1%) cf. L-NP (43.5%, up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends – July 5/6 & 12/13, 2014.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,955 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite the L-NP gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP improved to 38.5% (up 2% from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote is 34% (down 1%).

This week the L-NP gained stronger preference support from minor parties including the Palmer United Party (PUP) (7.5%, up 0.5% – the equal highest recorded) and Independents/ Others (8.5%, down 1%). Support for the Greens fell slightly to 11.5% (down 0.5%).

Support for the Palmer United Party is now highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (13.5%) and Western Australia (13%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (5.5%), Victoria (5%), Tasmania (6%) and South Australia (5.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 60.5% well ahead of the L-NP 39.5% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is closer with the ALP 52.5% just ahead of the L-NP on 47.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Western Australia: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%. New South Wales: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Queensland: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, South Australia: ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5% and Tasmania: ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

5683-gcr

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 90 this week (down 5.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 36.5% (down 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 46.5% (up 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

And here’s my own chart of first term PM performances:

sdf

Still tracking the “witch” into the “ditch”, if you’ll pardon the expression.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.