Stock on market rises in March

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By Leith van Onselen

SQM Research has released its Stock on Market data for March, which revealed a 1.8% increase in listings over the month, but a 5.2% fall since the same time last year:

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According to the Media Release:

…year-on-year the nation’s stock is down by -5.2%, with Sydney still recording significant falls: -17.0% since March 2013. Contrastingly, Darwin’s stock levels have soared since this time last year, revealing a 12.8% yearly increase in sales listings.

Managing Director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher says, “There are no new trends that have come out of the data this month other than we note that Melbourne still has an elevated amount of listings in the market and so this has made us skeptical of recently reported large increases in dwelling prices for that city. There is also further evidence that Melbourne vendors, overall have struggled to lift their asking prices.”

On the topic of asking prices, SQM’s results for March showed capital city house prices falling by 1.6% over the quarter, whereas unit prices were flat:

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So, it was a relatively weak result for the quarter with vendors struggling to lift their asking prices. Surprisingly, weakness was recorded in Sydney with asking prices for houses falling by 1.6% for the quarter and Units rising by just 0.2%.

Adelaide recorded the strongest result for the quarter, with asking prices for houses rising by 0.9% and units rising by 3.5%.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research says, “This is all in contrast to the very bullish findings from the RP Data daily index, which among other things, reported a very sharp rise in Melbourne dwelling prices of 5% for the Quarter and now has Sydney up over 15% for the year.

“While that index may be meeting our forecasts this year of 15-20% rises for Sydney, SQM Research continues to remain dubious of it and strongly recommends for you to follow the ABS and APM versions of house price sold data, which will be reporting early next month based on a lot more sold data for the quarter gone by.”

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.