Weekly poll aggregation

Monday 13 May 2013

Today’s Morgan (56-44) and Essential (55-45) polls are largely narratives of the status quo. The Morgan result is identical to last week. The Essential result is the same as the previous independent fortnight; however, it is up a point for Labor on last week.

For the past six weeks, the Bayesian aggregation of Labor’s two-party preferred polling has been bouncing along in a range between 44.0 and 44.6 per cent.

The end point of the series currently sits at 44.2 per cent. Like last week, this result would see the Coalition winning around 99 seats and Labor around 48 seats in the House of Representatives.

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.