Earlier today, Houses & Holes’ posted a summary of today’s retail sales figures for the month of December, which registered a seasonally-adjusted -0.2% fall over the month versus an expected 0.3% rise. October and November’s figures were also revised down to -0.1% and -0.2% respectively, from 0.0% and -0.1% previously. Hence, it was the third straight month that retail sales fell.
Retail sales are now decelerating strongly following the spike induced by one-off compensation payments for the introduction of the carbon tax, with annual sales growth falling to only 2.3% from 2.7% in November (see next chart):
The southern states of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania are more or less experiencing a retailing recession, with all three states recording negative sales growth over the year. By contrast, the mining states/territories continue to power along (see next chart).
Looking at volumes only, retail sales were basically flat over the December quarter and up by 2.6% over the year, with most segments experiencing decreases in sales volumes over the quarter, but increases over the year (see next chart).
However, the southern states are experiencing a retailing recession in volume terms as well, with Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania each experiencing at least two consecutive quarters of negative sales growth (see next chart).
When adjusted for population growth, retail sales have remained essentially flat since December 2007, which followed 15 years of strong growth (see next chart).
Clearly, retail sales are a long way off the heady days pre-GFC, when sales were juiced by high rates of credit growth and ever-rising asset prices.
unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com
the last graph, turn over per capita illustrate very well why businesses/gov a pushing so hard to increase the numbers of “Capita”, I m guessing 3% increase pa could their target.
Wha?
sorry badly written.As spending per capita is now flat, to be able to keep a reasonable growth of 3% pa they would need ( but not achieve hopefully) a 3% pa immigration intake.
That’s what I thought you said.
Can you imagine how quickly a 3% pa immigration rate would make a mess of the place? Especially in terms of infrastructure.
Dam can dream all he wants.
of course it s terrible, it s already terrible now with current very high immigration rate (210k permanent visa for 12-13, not counting the 457 and al) and the decreasing quality of life and so on associated with.
It was just to make a point about what businesses/Gov could like to implement.They pretty much need a very high immigration rate to stay afloat.
Sorry to say dam…but that’s Turnbull’s plan as well.
Reflects my anecdotal observations in Adelaide during pre-Christmas sales. Did the usual last minute shop a week before Christmas and it was very quiet (CBD & Marion Shopping Centre).
McKibbin’s call may just be a little premature.