Following on from my earlier post on November’s goods and services trade data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), please find below ANZ Bank’s take:
- Australia’s trade deficit widened by more than expected in November to AUD2.637bn (mkt: AUD2.3bn). However, the miss relative to market expectations can be wholly explained by historical revisions, with the trade deficit revised around AUD350mn wider in October to AUD2.443bn. This was mostly due to higher imports than previously measured. Revisions of this type have been common over the past year or so, partly because the ABS has difficulty accurately measuring resources-related imports (capital and services) in real time.
- The value of exports rose 1.2% m/m in November, a little less than we had expected but this was largely due to a steep 9% m/m fall in the volatile non-monetary gold component. Excluding this category, export values were up a healthy 2% m/m. Metal ores and minerals exports rose by a strong 6.2% m/m, in part due to higher iron ore prices on our reckoning, but coal and other resource exports declined. Manufacturing, rural and services exports all rose solidly in the month.
- The value of imports rose 1.8% m/m, which was slightly lower than foreshadowed by the ABS merchandise imports release. Excluding lumpy goods, ‘core’ imports were 2.2% m/m higher.
Full report below…
ANZ Trade Nov 12 Quick Reaction
Will the intermediate and capital goods fall away as the mining and processing investment boom ends?
Will export volumes and total revenue increase as the mines and resource processing come on stream?
These need to be factored in and estimated forward to avoid inappropriate action now that shows that it was unnecessary or harmful in a year or two.
It’s like the productivity debate where those with agenda’s fail to mention let alone account for the impact of the capital expenditure in the mining and processing sectors.
What productivity debate????
Re mining capital…future income streams will be heading overseas as we own so little of our mines. Will htere then be more income loacally than when the mines are being developed??? I’m mo expert but I’d think, and from what I can read, the answer is ‘no’!
I’ve been hearing about this wonderful income stream from development for 50 years. It never happens. The CAD just gets worse year by year. Whatever benefits we derived we spent and then some more.
With all the stupid drivel that is now put forward as economics, including MB, the situation of our wanting to spend more than we earn will just get worse and worse…until it can’t!