Morgan poll: Parties neck and neck

Coincidentally from Roy Morgan this afternoon:

In late January support for the L-NP is 50.5% (down 1.5% since January 5/6 & 12/13, 2013) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends January  19/20 & 26/27, 2013.

The L-NP primary vote is 39% (down 2.5%), clearly ahead of the ALP 36% (down 0.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1.5%) and Independents/ Others are 13% (up 1.5%).

If a Federal election were held today the election would be too close to call according to today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 112.5pts (down 2pts since January 5/6 & 12/13, 2013) with 46.5% (down 0.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 34% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

38 Responses to “ “Morgan poll: Parties neck and neck”

  1. Alex78 says:

    Strange how most bookies have the Libs at under $1.30.

    Might be a problem with low volumes and liquidity in the market?

    • Revert2Mean says:

      Yes, but which party is better in terms of leaving a usable world for our children and grandchildren?

      A Warning From the Future

      Listen / Download (mp3 14MB)

      Coming up in this program: leading scientist Dr. David Karoly says record heat and fires in Australia are a warning to the world. But we are not alone in the big change. Insects may adapt or die faster than humans, as told by “the bug guy”, University of Maryland’s Dr. Michael Raup. Then Steven Davis explains why climate solutions advanced just 9 years ago are no longer possible. A new report says existing technology is not enough to stem the climate tide. Now what?

      • MattR says:

        Won’t somebody please think of the children!

        I’d say the party that our children would prefer is the party that promotes fiscal responsibility, small government and free markets. Not so sure if my grandchildren would thank me if I left them a world ruled by green watermelons.

      • Mining Bogan says:

        Maybe not, but at least they could go to the beach without needing some sort of life-pod.

      • 3d1k says:

        MB and R2M – Lorax linked to an interesting talk recently, worth a look. Critique of armageddon-like warnings from environment movement by two environmental activists.

        http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/01/phat-dragon-sees-a-huge-pick-up-in-chinese-railway-construction/#comment-209540

        R2M, follow links Pts 1-5.
        http://bunyipitude.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/karolygate-i.html

      • Mining Bogan says:

        To late, I’ve already got all of these on order ;)

        http://www.oobject.com/category/15-odd-pods/

      • Revert2Mean says:

        2d, the “karolygate” stuff is nonsense from the usual suspects. I’ll watch the video Lorax linked and get back to you anon.

      • The Lorax says:

        MineBot: If we’re to find some common ground on climate change policy, can you please cut the crap with this Karolygate nonsense.

        I’m hoping we can have a sensible debate without you resorting to smearing climate scientists.

      • Revert2Mean says:

        Unimpressed by the video. The speakers seem to be in the pay of the nuclear power industry. The both read their presentations from paper, did not speak with any conviction, and one guy kept touching his nose — all giveways that betray a lack of conviction, and dishonesty. They were going through the motions, IMO. When the second speaker gave a big thumbs up to even bigger agrobusiness than we currently have, and trashed small scale agriculture, I knew I was watching ‘fifth columnists’, and stopped watching.

      • The Lorax says:

        R2M: FWIW, I think the speakers in the video are genuine, and are attempting to find a way forward after 20 years of failure on climate change policy.

        Their key point is that scaring people hasn’t worked. Energy efficiency measures won’t work. The only thing that will work is when clean energy becomes cheaper than fossil energy, and then it becomes a no brainer.

        Do you honestly believe that a politician of any flavour will punish the electorate with high enough energy prices that will force change?

      • Revert2Mean says:

        The only thing that will work is when clean energy becomes cheaper than fossil energy

        That’s exactly the argument the FF interests are putting out there. Anything to delay the adoption of measures NOW. In fact there are many measures that could and should be undertaken now (they are only one more oil price spike or Hurricane Sandy away).

        The speakers also mouthed other denier memes, like “we need to combat climate change in the future” etc — there were lots of mentions of some indefinite point in the future when CC will become a problem, rather than the fact that it’s a problem NOW.

        But the biggest give away was the reading of the speeches. People who are truly committed experts and devoted to their fields never, ever do that.

        Don’t be conned, mate :shock:

        Climate policy has not completely failed in the last 20 years (we keep meeting internationally on the issue, some carbon trading/taxing programs now exist, cars becoming more fuel efficient, Obama sets it up as his major goal for next term, etc). We are seeing glacially slow change, but humans are capable of massive change if they suddenly realise we have a true and life-threatening problem. I believe this realisation is coming.

      • npi_tweet says:

        Do you understand that capitalism in its purest form will create monopolies?

        Free markets are not a solution, they are the problem….. How about create incentives for small business/individuals and disincentives to corporations. Ever seen an ‘employee’ innovate? It’s very rare you know.

        I would prefer my grandchildren to be self employed than punching a time card for some shumcky corporation….

      • spleenblatt says:

        Mommy, why does Granddad Matt keep walking around in circles mumbling to himself about fipcul reponsibliminy, small gubbimint and three martians ?

        Don’t worry about Granddad, kids – he’s just a bit confused. Why don’t you wander over and offer him some watermelon ?

      • emess says:

        So Matt, what are the chances of such a party ever starting up in Australia, and who do you see on the present political landscape that might lead such a new party?

        Not sure I can think of (m)any in Parliament at the moment who would suit your listed requirements. Take out the agrarian socialists, the welfare lobbies (both traditional and middle class), the apologists for rent seeking on all ends of the spectrum and the dead wood useless ones of all parties, and who do you have left? Oh, and if you clear out those who are economical with the truth….LOL.

  2. The Patrician says:

    Would be good if we could get Nate Silver to do an analysis of our polls.

    • AB says:

      Yes! Drag him away from the cards and let him work his magic. If he can tolerate US politics, he should be able to cope with ours.

  3. Gunnamatta says:

    Sort of like having Port Adelaide 1 point ahead of Gold Coast at the 2 minute mark of the first quarter…

  4. MattR says:

    Essential has it at 54:46 to the Coalition

    http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

    JWS both of marginal seats even worse for Labor.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-29/labor-could-lose-18-seats3a-poll/4488670

    Betting markets have Coalition an absolute sure thing.

  5. Alex Heyworth says:

    The gap has been closing since the RBA started cutting interest rates in June. Is the hip pocket nerve that sensitive? Certainly seems so.

  6. 3d1k says:

    Anyone know the reasoning behind Gillard advising the Oakeshott Windsor and Milne prior to official announcement – apparently even Shorten was caught short. He did not look a happy camper…

    • Gunnamatta says:

      Well I would imagine letting the crossbenchers know was courtesy.

      She would know you wouldnt show much courtesy to many ALParatchik types types as they consider it weakness – but she doesnt really have to because she is leading them, and whether one likes the woman or not you have to admit she is leading if only for a day. All strength to her. Half of them would have leaked it, the other half would have rushed out to do whatever last minute favours they needed for mates.

      And when all is said and done would TestosterTone have had any more consideration for his party?

      and think

      • 3d1k says:

        A courtesy ya reckon! Lol. Nah, firstly she’s going to need them, they too are part of the anti-coalition throng.

        More intriguingly is what is going on in Labor – tension in the cabinet room must have been ratcheting to breaking point – this allows a venting and shifts focus to re-election. But damage has been done. Offence given, and taken. There may even be another night of the long knives (wishful thinking on my part ;) )

        Cheers.

      • emess says:

        I wonder if we should be keeping score of wishful thinking posts – to see if both sides are keeping up with each other on that particular election KPI.

        Since it seems that the Right in the USA was more a victim of that in their recent election, it would be interesting to see if it was also a phenomenon in ours, or whether it is something both sides are prone to.

      • Gunnamatta says:

        You might have had a few too many sherberts there old coq. Remember Latham? Half the ALP wanted to neck him but they didnt. Remember Hawke Keating – they held it together come election time. They might front up sporting the odd bruise and black eye, but they will hold rank in the election campaign.

        I tend to the view that calling the campaign this far out (infuriatingly boring as I am sure it will become) has actually caught the Torynuffs on the back foot. TestosterTone still is wearing that ‘I am a sexist’ tattoo on his forehead as far as many women are concerned, and everything he does to try and TestosterTone it down from here is is going to be seen as both ‘he’s trying to bullshit me into voting for him’ by many women and finds the Libs painted into a corner in their budget austerity calls (they were lucky they got rid of the budget surplus pledge last week – if Gillard could have caught them with that in place she would have TestosterTone by the nads).

        That said any form of black swan event will throw this election into chaos for either party. I have slapped a butterfly spread around the ALParatchiks at 3.70, but will wait for that first TestosterTone gaffe (or maybe the third or fourth) before even thinking of punting on the Libs. Thats not to say I dont think they can win it, just that I dont think they are worth investing in yet, and are likely to become more so before the campaign is done.

      • 3d1k says:

        Mod: Have the night off, you’ve reached your daily quota (for your employers too I imagine)

      • Mav says:

        Bot, make up your mind/algo. On one hand, you say she is going to need them. On the other hand, you insist the indis are going to lose !!

        Logic is slipping among the wing bots. Why, MattR unwittingly approved of MMT just the other day!! Blasphemy!!

  7. The Lorax says:

    FWIW, I can’t see Abbott losing. The national polls really don’t matter because there are too many marginals in NSW on a knife edge. The ALP would have to win dozens of seats in Vic and Qld to offset the landslide in NSW, and that ain’t gonna happen, despite Ted and Can-do’s best efforts.

    I must say, I’m looking forward to TestosterTone and (not so) Big Joe inheriting our hollowed-out economy, and whacking it with draconian spending cuts just as mining investment goes into full reverse.

    Grab the popcorn Malcolm.

    • MichaelGuy says:

      I have thought for a while that the ALP stand a better chance than most think. People don’t like State and Federal Governments of the same party so now that LNP have Vic, NSW and Qld, will voters in those states want an LNP Federal Govt? May even be time for the ALP to pick up seats in WA. I think calling the election now is clever because it locks in Tony Abbott – a huge liability for the LNP. I thought the right dominance in the LNP made it unlikely for Turnbull to get back the leadership but now them changing leaders is even more unlikely unless the polls give the ALP a winning margin.

      • The Lorax says:

        You misunderstand. I see Malcolm taking over after the election once Tony and Joe have screwed things up.

  8. aj. says:

    Even as i get older and even more cynical i am consistently amazed how easily the marketing machines for the big party brands manipulate the punters with the binary choice thing..

    But considering how many boozy, heavily indebted, fatties we have trotting about it does seem that many people are quite comfortable letting marketing teams make their life decisions.

  9. Explorer says:

    Good to see active moderation. See Scientific American blog mentioned in Business Spectator this morning. Not sure I totally agree with degree of exclusion mentioned but the points in favour of active moderation are well made.