The good news keeps rolling today with China’s January Flash PMI posting a solid gain:
- Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 51.9 (51.5 in December). 24-month high.
- Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 52.2 (51.9 in December). 22-month high.
However, again, there are reasons for caution. The leading components of the index are both flat-lining already:
Here’s the complete mix:
Nothing here to change my view that China is enjoying a slowly gently ramping rebound with a limited half-life. Full report below.
ViewPressRelease.pdf by Belinda Winkelman
Rebound with a limited half-life – so how long do you think this tentative rebound can last?
Unless external conditions do better than I’m counting on or more infrastructure is committed, then I expect the growth pulse to fade by mid-year.
Not to dire levels, but back into the 7s.
Then we shall see.
Look at Bloxo’s chart. This is all about infrastructure stimulus…
I know