Trading Day – 27th April

Summary After peaking sharply on the open, the market has settled slightly up after the almost week long Easter/ANZAC break, at 4918 points. NOTE: as I was compiling this report, the PPI figures came out and the market has sunk over 20 points after midday. The short term trend remains weak but positive on momentum,


Victorian troubles

In my recent budget analysis piece I spoke about public final demand. Forecast 6: Public final demand, having risen strongly in 2009‑10, is forecast to moderate in 2010‑11 and 2011‑12, reflecting the unwinding of the Government’s fiscal stimulus measures and a broader moderation in spending growth across other levels of government. Analysis: I am going


Pettis on yuan

From Michael Pettis this week: On Friday last week the National Bureau of Statistics released the eagerly anticipated first quarter data.  As has been widely reported, first quarter GDP was up 9.7% year on year. CPI inflation 5.4% in March, a 32-month high, and up from 4.9% for the first two months of this year.  For the first


April 27 links: Of greed and fools

Down: metals, energy, grains Flat: $US, Aussie Shock! Greek deficit gets worse. Calculated Risk Spain too. Business Insider Shanghai breaks 50 DMA. Bespoke What Bernanke should say. Gavyn Davies US is slowing. Gavyn Davies Grantham on the commodity paradigm shift. Alphaville Son of Wallis lite draws to laughable conclusion. SMH Manufacturers turn to protectionism. The Oz Miners want


“Negative equity” hits thousands of WA homeowners

Earlier this month, the Western Australian (WA) Chamber of Commerce noted that the WA economy had fallen into technical recession, experiencing two successive quarters of negative economic growth in the last six months of 2010:  Western Australia is generally regarded as Australia’s economic engine room with its booming resources sector, but its manufacturing and retail sectors are struggling. The WA Chamber


April 26 Links: A few surprises

DE Again Week ahead for the DOW Calculated Risk Up: gold, metals, grains Down: energy, Aussie  Flat: $US Analysis Bloomberg , Reuters Syria Crisis BBC US mulling sanctions Reuters Yemen still bubbling CNN China raising capital requirements again Bloomberg Gillard is there ABC Oz Government confident of free trade deal with Sth Korea ABC Japan’s car production down 60% ABC Portugal’s


A warning to Canberra

From the ANU’s East Asia Forum comes this sobering assessment of the challenges facing the Chinese economy: China recently wrapped up the National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultation Conference (CPPCC) with the approval of the 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) (2011-2015). At the top of the new blueprint is a commitment to


More on NCCP (Updated)

I first mentioned National Consumer Credit Protection back in early January when I suggested it could have an effect on the housing market. This certainly reads like it should improve credit standards, especially if any of these things were actually allowed previous to this new legislation; and we applaud this legislation if this is the


Here comes the budget pain

Last week’s article, Hooked on property, provided some detailed facts and figures from RP Data highlighting how Australia’s state and local governments are addicted to property-related taxes, and discussed how these revenues are expected to fall precipitously as housing sales decline and prices stagnate. The article concluded with the following statement: Over the past decade,


Australian Dollar Weekly Wrap

Another stellar week for the AUD, if you are a bull or long, and another new post float high and weekly close at 1.0738. The combination of a weak USD after the warning by Standard and Poors about the future of the United States AAA rating combined with solid terms of trade data and a


Looking beyond interest rates

Sam Birmingham runs a top quality networking site for young professionals called WeBe, which provides up-to-date information on financial matters, work-related issues, lifestyle news and reviews, and current affairs and opinion pieces. WeBe also provides a platform where members can have their voices heard, express opinions and share ideas with other like-minded Young Professionals. Yesterday,


Easter Friday Links: AUD High

DE Again, Up: gold, metals, energy, ore , grains Aussie Up too , with a new new new record Down: $US Analysis Bloomberg Obama looking for fraud in US energy Reuters Robots to do US dirty work in Libya News.com.au As Libyan rebel push on BBC $1b axe to fall on  Oz Fed public service  SMH Origin signs $90b LNG


Triguboff sounds the alarm

I haven’t mentioned Harry Triguboff previously. For those who aren’t aware he is also known as “High rise Harry” and is the head of Meriton. Meriton are the largest developer of apartments in Australia with around 50,000 under their name. Harry is a huge supporter of “Big” Australia and is obviously a person who would


Will the RBA step in front of the train?

I’ve raged against the fact that the AUD is hollowing out our import competing industries and our non-mining exports but today, as the AUD careens towards 1.10, I want to focus on whether the RBA is going to do anything about it.   Just now, the dollar is being buoyed by two major themes. The


Trading Day 21st April – green across the board

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index (and others) Its green across the board: all stocks, futures and commodities are up and gold has surpassed $US1500 and change – but paradoxically


Woolies vs Coles

There has been a lot of commentary about Coles’ improved performance when compared with Woolworths’. Stephen Bartholomeusz enthuses about the “renaissance of Coles” although he is careful to  say that Woolworths is doing alright as well.  Elizabeth Knight enthuses about the “dazzling sales number from Coles raises the stakes in the mother of all supermarket


Dow set to pop the champagne

What a difference a couple of days can make. Earlier this week we had global inflation concerns, with a tightening from China weighing on markets. This was followed by growing sovereign concerns on restructure talk in Europe’s periphery and S&P’s downgrade to the outlook for the US’s sovereign debt rating. While these fundamentals are still


Houses and holes forever!

The press is full of condemnation of Wayne Swan’s preliminary Budget speech yesterday. Personally, it didn’t strike me as so awful. In parts, it was a pretty candid take on the conundrum facing the economy: But this phase of the mining boom, mining boom mark II, will be very different to mining boom mark I,


Negative Gearing for the chop?

I can’t quite believe what I am reading, but here it is from the SMH: The Gillard government has sounded out unions over steps to cool Australia’s housing market, with measures that range from a new sales tax for investors sitting on large property portfolios, to curbing the popular strategy of using negative gearing for


April 21 Links: Rebound and budget

DE Again Up: gold, metals, energy Rocket: Aussie , new new record Down: ore, $US Mixed: grains Analysis Reuters Angola to offer sovereign bonds Bloomberg Euro economists expect Greek default Reuters Euro Chamber of Commerce unhappy with China Telegraph UK France/Italy to send troops to Libya BBC , but only for “advice” There is a war of a different kind at Qantas


Irish bust video

Max Keiser yesterday posted a video exposé (below) on the damage caused by the bursting of the Irish housing bubble and how the bad debts of the Irish banks have been transferred to Irish taxpayers (h/t Mish and Rota Fortuna). For readers unfamiliar with what happened in Ireland, consider reading my December article, Unluck of the


Disleveraging hits the Budget

It is that time of year again where the government, specifically the treasurer gets to tell you what a wonderful job they/he are doing. This year the Treasurer seems to be using the old “it was the last guys fault” strategy to cover up his own inadequacies. His latest speech in Brisbane was a definitely


Westpac: Leading indicators solid

From Westpac and the Melbourne Institute today comes leading indicators for the economy (full report below). And they’re solid: The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 4.7% in February 2011, above its long term trend of